By Jonatan Randin, Senior Market Analyst at PrimeXBT
In mid September the setup looked bad for Bitcoin. The CLARITY Act failed in the Senate on 15 September and the Fed hiked to 3.75 to 4.00% the next day. Bitcoin (BTC) briefly traded under $75,000. A week later it was above $87,000.
Then the bond market moved, and Bitcoin stopped going up.
What happened in bonds
On 23 September the 10 year US Treasury yield jumped more than 18 basis points, the biggest one day rise since April 2025. It kept going and rose above 5.2% the next day, the highest since 2007. The 30 year reached about 5.50%, a level last seen in 2004.
There was no single trigger. Strong PMI data, a weak five year auction and higher oil all played a part. The Treasury even bought back $4 billion of long bonds on 24 September, and yields still rose.
Why the hike didn’t matter much
Everyone saw it coming. By the eve of the meeting, futures markets priced the hike at close to 90%. Some of Bitcoin’s weakness in the weeks before arguably reflected that repricing.
ETF flows show it. Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost about $750 million over 15 and 16 September, then took in $2.39 billion in the week to 25 September, their biggest week since October 2025 according to Farside Investors.
Why the bond move is different
Look at those flows day by day: $999 million on Monday, then $715 million, $347 million, $191 million and $135 million on Friday. The buying never stopped. It just got smaller as yields went up.
A hike is one decision with a known size. A bond selloff has no size, and the market decides how far it goes. Yields above 5% compete directly with an asset that pays nothing.
There’s another way to read it. If the Treasury has to keep borrowing at higher rates, the deficit grows and so does the supply of bonds. Many in crypto see that as the long term case for Bitcoin. For now, though, the short term effect is the one showing up in the flows.
So far Bitcoin is holding the move. It isn’t extending it.
What the chart says
On the 3 day chart, Bitcoin broke above the $70,000 region around 20 August. It then spent a few weeks consolidating near $80,000 before breaking higher again last week.
That second breakout matters. It’s arguably the first higher high on the higher timeframes since the bear market began, and price reached above $87,000 before pulling back.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 3 day chart with the 20 and 50 EMA. The breakout above $80,000 marks the first higher high since the bear market began, and the 20 EMA has crossed above the 50 EMA. Source: TradingView
The moving averages support the same picture. The 20 EMA has crossed above the 50 EMA on the 3 day chart for the first time since they crossed down in November 2025, which is roughly where the bear market started.
Price is now retracing the latest leg up. The next higher timeframe support sits at $80,000, and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the move from around $75,000 to $87,000 falls just above it, near $81,000.
As long as Bitcoin holds the $80,000 area, the overall structure could still be read as constructive. A sustained move back below it would put that higher high into question.
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About PrimeXBT
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