Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom, announced on June 4 that he has exited his entire positions in both Hyperliquid’s HYPE token and NEAR Protocol — reversing two of his most publicly stated high-conviction long calls — citing five macro and geopolitical factors he believes will weigh on risk assets between now and early Q3 2026.
The exit marks a significant about-face for Hayes, who had publicly identified HYPE as one of his two largest positions outside Bitcoin earlier this year — alongside ZCash — with a stated price target of $150 by August 2026, per reporting of his Consensus Miami remarks. HYPE had already delivered returns well above his entry price following a 55% weekly surge that pushed the token above $56 before analyst Ali Martinez flagged an overheated technical setup at the $59–$60 resistance zone. Hayes, it appears, agreed with the diagnosis.
The Five Reasons He Cited
In the X post, Hayes offered a five-point TLDR ahead of a full essay titled “Reality Test,” which he said will drop on Tuesday. The reasons are specific and macro-driven rather than project-specific — a signal that the exit is a portfolio-level risk management decision rather than a loss of conviction in either HYPE or NEAR as assets.
The first factor is higher energy prices driven by the ongoing Iran war and inventory restocking — a dynamic Hayes has consistently flagged as a macro headwind for risk assets throughout 2026. The second is the pipeline of three mega AI initial public offerings he anticipates between now and early Q3, which he expects will absorb significant institutional risk capital that might otherwise flow into crypto.
The third is a prediction that President Trump will pivot to an anti-AI political stance ahead of the midterm elections — a move Hayes believes would be used to win Republican seats and could create further uncertainty for technology-adjacent risk assets.
The fourth is a broader view that market highs across asset classes will occur between now and September — implying the risk-reward of holding leveraged positions into that window is unfavorable. The fifth is personal: Hayes said he wants to take profit and enjoy what he called a “two-step in beefa” — a reference to time in Ibiza — without the psychological weight of open positions.
What The Exit Signals For HYPE
The position reversal arrives at a technically sensitive moment for HYPE. The token had delivered 130% in year-to-date returns at the time Ali Martinez flagged the TD Sequential sell signal and overbought RSI at the $59–$60 resistance zone — the same area Hayes appears to have used as his exit window.
With one of the most prominent public bulls now fully out, the near-term price action for HYPE will depend heavily on whether the institutional demand documented in Hyperliquid’s Q1 2026 report — $215 million in gross revenue, 71.5 percentage points of alpha over Bitcoin, four HYPE ETF filings from Grayscale, VanEck, 21Shares, and Bitwise — provides sufficient structural support to absorb the sentiment impact of Hayes’ public exit.
Hayes was clear that the exit is tactical rather than fundamental. A full explanation of his reasoning will arrive in Tuesday’s essay — and given his track record of macro calls, the crypto market will be reading every word.
Cover image from Grok, HYPEUSD chart from Tradingview
