Bitcoin is trading close to $80,000 in the first week of May; Jerome Powell is weeks away from stepping down as Federal Reserve chair; the S&P 500 is at an all-time high; and sentiment across crypto markets is slowly turning positive.Â
Crypto trader and market analyst Aralez has stepped forward with a full arc of the industry’s next major cycle that stretches from the second quarter of 2026 into the end of 2027. The prediction starts with a bearish short-term outlook for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, but it does not end there.
Bitcoin And Ethereum Could Face Another Deep Drop Before Q3
The first stage of Aralez’s prediction focuses on May and June 2026, where he expects the market to see one more wave of panic. This is the most bearish part of the forecast, and it places the Bitcoin price reaching below $58,000, which would represent a drop of about 27% from its current price near $79,715. The chart attached to the analysis shows Bitcoin holding close to $80,000 before rolling over into a projected Q2 decline.
Ethereum, in his view, could fall to around $1,600. This would also translate to a decline of about 32% from its current price of $2,359. Aralez also tied this stage to weakness in the S&P 500, with a prediction that it could reverse and fall below 6,800. That would be a clear break from the current mood in equities, where the index is currently trading at new highs around 7,230.
The second part of the forecast is on Q3 2026, when Bitcoin will start to form a bottom while whales begin accumulating. The trigger in his forecast is a change in Federal Reserve leadership, followed by a strong market drop and the first US rate cut. Aralez’s prediction is that the leadership transition will lead to a market sell-off, with the S&P 500 falling to as low as $5,200 in the worst of it.
Q4 2026 To 2027 Could Bring Bitcoin Back Above Its Record High
The most bullish section of the prediction begins in Q4 2026. Aralez expects Bitcoin to start a new uptrend and reach above $90,000 before the end of the year. That would represent a major recovery from the projected sub-$58,000 Q2 target, but the analyst sees it as only the first stage of a bigger move.
The outlook is that Bitcoin will break its all-time high and reach above $140,000 sometime between Q1 and Q4 2027. The surge will be supported by mass integration of AI into the crypto industry, the launch of quantitative easing amid a global crisis, and new narratives bringing millions of participants into crypto.
Those who buy Bitcoin during the Q3 2026 bottom, at or below $58,000, would achieve close to a 3x return within twelve months if the $140,000 target is hit.
