Bitcoin’s price is still in range rather than in a full risk‑off spill after a post‑expiry sell‑off, a string of red monthly closes, and geopolitical tensions.
Bitcoin Remains Rangebound
March 30th QCP Market Colour reports that Bitcoin briefly slipped to around $65k during thin Asian trading (low‑liquidity window where smaller orders can push price around disproportionately). It then snapped back into its usual weekend band between $66k and $67k.
Throughout the month, this has been a recurring pattern: price softens into the weekend as traders cut risk, then grinds higher again as the new week begins.
Bitcoin will likely stay stuck in its current range as Trump’s 10‑day halt on strikes against Iranian energy assets runs toward its April 6 expiry, a point at which traders are bracing for a possible flare‑up.
In options, post‑expiry volatility compression is “muted”; traders are still paying for gamma, overwriters are sidelined, and the vol surface signals caution but not panic. Positioning is defensive rather than euphoric, which fits a market that is stable but not ready to break higher.
Everything points at Bitcoin being headed for a sixth straight negative monthly close and its first three‑month losing stretch to kick off the year, highlighting how fragile sentiment remains.
Geopolitical Tensions Heighten
According to QCP, “Washington is signalling escalation risk”. The U.S. insists talks are moving forward, but the continued troop buildup indicates it is still preparing for potential ground operations. Meanwhile, Iran’s partners in Yemen keep warning they could disrupt key supply routes if the conflict worsens.
Any blockade in the Bab al‑Mandeb strait could dramatically worsen the existing inflation shock, a scenario the administration can hardly stomach with approval ratings sagging and midterms on the horizon.
Macro and geopolitics are tightly intertwined. Elevated oil, war risk premium and supply‑chain vulnerabilities keep the famous stagflation narrative alive, which continues to muddy Bitcoin’s role between high‑beta risk asset and emerging macro hedge.
As long as Trump’s strike pause holds and there is no major policy surprise, BTC likely stays range‑bound and headline‑driven into early April.
“The Majority Of Market Participants Are Operating At A Loss”
On-chain, all this tension translates to Long‑Term Holder SOPR (profitability) recently slipping below 1.0, new data from Crypto Dan for Crypto Quant shows. Veteran holders are now selling at a loss: classic “surrender” or early capitulation behavior.
Since long‑term holders are usually the least reactive to short‑term price swings, a period where they start locking in losses often signals that the entire market has entered a capitulation phase.
According to Crypto Dan, these kinds of conditions have often preceded phases where selling pressure slowly runs out, paving the way for market bottoms or areas that sit near long‑term lows. The analyst believes that it may be too early to call this the definitive bottom, but a stage where losses are broadly shared typically marks the last leg of fear and the first real window of opportunity for patient buyers.
Put together, range‑bound price, cautious options, and long‑term holder stress suggest we’re in a late correction phase, where the market is still under pressure but closer to washing out and stabilizing, not yet in the clear new bull leg where price starts trending higher with conviction.
Cover image from Perplexity, BTCUSDT chart from Tradingview
