Bitcoin’s months of sideways action have been uncannily similar to the previous two BTC market cycles, which saw a pivot in November leading up to a halving event.
Bitcoin’s ongoing sideways price action could flip bullish as early as November if it behaves similarly to previous cycles leading up to a halving event, according to market observers.
On Oct. 10, crypto analyst Miles Deutscher cited a chart from CryptoCon, noting that the recent patterns for Bitcoin are similar to those seen in previous cycles.
“This is typical sideways price action that occurs from Q2-Q4 in pre-halving years.”
He added that Nov. 21 has historically been a key pivot point for Bitcoin’s price to begin trending upward as it heads to the next halving.
For example, following six months of sideways trading in mid-2015, BTC prices starting gaining ground around November. Likewise in 2019, markets spent most of the year flat before taking off around the end of the year.
Self-proclaimed crypto trader and technical analyst “Mags” made a similar observation, noting that BTC is currently sitting 60% below its all-time high at around 200 days before its scheduled halving, similar to 2015 and 2019.
Bitcoin Halving in Just 200 Days
Ever wondered where Bitcoin was 200 days before in the previous halvings?
In 2016, BTC was -65% below its ATH.
In 2019, BTC was -60% below its ATH.
In 2023, BTC is currently -60% below its ATH.
So, even if it seems like Bitcoin's price… pic.twitter.com/H8dlWcM91y
— Mags (@thescalpingpro) October 9, 2023
Galaxy Trading added that a similar cycle could see a Bitcoin “dump” or bottom around November 10-15.
2022-2023 bottom
We had (for now) bottom at 9th November 2022
If we see similar cycle we might have the dump – bottom for 2023 around 10-15th November this year. https://t.co/iNikAekfjq pic.twitter.com/6SmTs5mIVB
— GalaxyTrading (@GalaxyTrading_) October 9, 2023
The Bitcoin halving is around six months away and will occur in late April or early May depending on which countdown timer you refer to.
Related: BTC price won’t hit $100K before 2024 halving
Meanwhile, in an Oct. 9 report, the head of research at crypto financial services firm Matrixport, Markus Thielen, said Bitcoin price could surge going into 2024, but for different reasons.
“At present, the most critical macroeconomic factor appears to be a reflection of the situation in 2019 when the Fed paused its rake hikes, leading to a significant surge in Bitcoin prices.”
Nevertheless, the majority of analysts and observers are in general agreement that the next major bull market will come in the year that follows the Bitcoin halving.
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