Bitcoin and the wider crypto market bounced higher today, but with the FTX drama in the forefront, investors are skeptical on whether the bullish momentum will hold.
Bitcoin (BTC) has jumped up 5% on Nov. 10, and confidence is returning over the global macro outlook and the news that FTX began partially opening withdrawals for users.
Crypto and equities markets responded to (Consumer Price Index (CPI) data which showed inflation at 0.4% for the month and 7.7% from a year ago which was less than the expected 0.6% monthly and 7.9% increase. The news sent the Nasdaq up 6% and puts it on pace for the biggest one-day gain since 2020.
After volatility caused by FTX’s potential insolvency, Bitcoin price reacted to positive news of opening withdrawals and the positive equities movement to increase $1,000 in minutes.
With volatility still likely amid the ongoing FTX situation, there is still a sense of lessening doom among crypto commentators, but some analysts believe the bottom is still not in for the crypto market.
The picture for the rest of Q4 remains muddy, as some analysts still expect 2022 to copy the 2018 bear market. At the same time, there is hope that this bearish trend will be gone for good by the start of 2023.
The overall crypto market has been positive, including Solana (SOL) which is up 20% since Nov. 9 even after losing 32.4% of the total value locked in its decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem.
Let’s examine three major factors influencing crypto market strength in the current environment.
The Fed could change its tune on rate hikes
When Cointelegraph reported on why the crypto market saw fresh losses last month, the United States Federal Reserve was first on the list.
Concerns focused on unwavering policy keeping the U.S. dollar strong and rates surging higher for the foreseeable future — the worst-case scenario for risk assets.
At the same time, rumors are gathering over the outlook for rate hikes as the Fed runs out of room to maneuver. After the November 75-basis-point hike, suspicions are that policy will begin to U-turn, making smaller hikes in subsequent months before reversing altogether in 2023.
As such, any signal that the Fed is preparing to soften its hawkish stance is being seized on by markets weary from a year of quantitative tightening (QT).
December’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is currently expected to yield a hike of 50 basis points, not 75, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Unemployment data released on Nov. 4 fueled bulls’ confidence. Coming in higher than expected, the implication could be that the rate hikes are having their desired effect — and that a pivot could thus come sooner rather than later.
Bitcoin volatility snaps record low levels
Analyzing data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, it becomes clear that BTC/USD has been too quiet for too long after reaching a yearly low under $16,000.
This is especially visible in the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator, which has rarely been closer together in Bitcoin’s history and has been demanding a breakout for weeks.
Last month, Bitcoin volatility even fell below that of some major fiat currencies, making BTC look more like a stablecoin than a risk asset.
Analysts had long expected the trend to undergo a violent change, however; and true to form, crypto markets did not disappoint.
A look at the Bitcoin historical volatility index (BVOL), recently at multi-year lows seen only a handful of times, shows that Bitcoin still has a way to go to abandon this characteristic.
“Pretty funny that volatility has been so compressed and we’ve become so conditioned as market participants that the slightest 3% move feels like a 15-20% move,” William Clemente, co-founder of crypto research firm Reflexivity Research, commented.
The dollar eyes a new chapter
After a parabolic uptrend throughout 2022, the U.S. dollar is only just beginning to show signs of weakness.
Related: Bitcoin seller exhaustion hits 4-year low in ‘typical’ bear market move
After a parabolic uptrend throughout 2022, the U.S. dollar is only just beginning to show signs of weakness.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) recently hit its highest levels since 2002, and momentum may yet return to take it even higher — at the expense of risk assets and major currencies alike.
In the meantime, however, the DXY is under pressure, and its descent came in lockstep with a return to form for Bitcoin and altcoins.
This flags an issue that Bitcoin bulls are keen to shake — an ongoing strong correlation with traditional markets and an inverse correlation with the dollar.
“Bitcoin now has a correlation with Gold of about 0.50, up from 0 in mid-August,” trading firm Barchart revealed in October.
“While the correlation is higher with $SPX (0.69) and $QQQ (0.72), the correlations have decreased of late.”
Fellow analyst Charles Edwards, founder of crypto asset manager Capriole, noted that Bitcoin macro price bottoms are often accompanied by increasing gold correlation.
Overall, crypto markets may still have volatile days ahead according to analysts, but the positive news of FTX resuming withdrawals is providing a nice bump.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
