• Market Cap: $1,146,316,366,130.50
  • 24h Vol: $37,893,937,987.23
  • BTC Dominance: 44.68%
XBT.Market
Advertisement
  • Home
  • Coins MarketCap
  • Crypto Exchanges
  • Crypto Calculator
  • Top Gainers and Loser
  • News
  • Contact Us
No Result
View All Result
XBT.Market
No Result
View All Result
Home Bitcoin

Pro Bitcoin traders are uncomfortable with bullish positions

Jon Hartney by Jon Hartney
July 22, 2022
in Bitcoin, Blockchain, Business, Market
0
Pro Bitcoin traders are uncomfortable with bullish positions
189
SHARES
1.5k
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

BTC derivatives used by whales and market makers do not support a continuous price recovery above $24,000.

The previous $19,000 Bitcoin (BTC) support level becomes more distant after the 22.5% gain in nine days. However, little optimism has been instilled as the impact of the Three Arrows Capital (3AC), Voyager, Babel Finance and Celsius crises remain uncertain. Moreover, the contagion has claimed yet another victim after Thai crypto exchange Zipmex halted withdrawals on July 20.

Bitcoin/USD 1-day price. Source: TradingView

Bulls’ hopes depend on the $23,000 support strengthening as time goes by, but derivatives metrics show professional traders are still highly skeptical of continuous recovery.

Related articles

Bitcoin Can Save California’s Largest Pension Fund From Its Existential Problems

Bitcoin Can Save California’s Largest Pension Fund From Its Existential Problems

June 8, 2023
SEC’s crypto actions surged 183% in 6 months after the FTX collapse

SEC’s crypto actions surged 183% in 6 months after the FTX collapse

June 8, 2023

Macroeconomic headwinds favor scarce assets

Some analysts attribute the crypto market strength to China’s lower-than-expected gross domestic product data, causing investors to expect further expansionary measures by policymakers. China’s economy expanded 0.4% in the second quarter versus the previous year, as the country continued to struggle with self-imposed restrictions to curb another outbreak of COVID-19 infections, according to CNBC.

The United Kingdom’s 9.4% inflation in June marked a 40-year high, and to supposedly aid the population, Chancellor of the Exchequer Nadhim Zahawi announced a $44.5 billion (GBP 37 billion) assistance package for vulnerable families.

Under these circumstances, Bitcoin reversed its downtrend as policymakers scrambled to solve the seemingly impossible problem of slowing economies amid ever-increasing government debt.

However, the cryptocurrency sector faces its own issues, including regulatory uncertainties. For instance, on July 21, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) labeled nine tokens as “crypto asset securities,” thus not only falling under the regulatory body’s purview but liable for having failed to register with it.

Expressly, the SEC referred to Powerledger (POWR), Kromatika (KROM), DFX Finance (DFX), Amp (AMP), Rally (RLY), Rari Governance Token (RGT), DerivaDAO (DDX), LCX, and XYO. The regulator brought charges against a former Coinbase product manager for “insider trading” after they allegedly used non-public information for personal benefit.

Currently, Bitcoin investors face too much uncertainty despite the seemingly helpful macroeconomic backdrop, which should favor scarce assets such as BTC. For this reason, an analysis of derivatives data is valuable in understanding whether investors are pricing higher odds of a downturn.

Pro traders remain skeptical of price recovery

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets. Still, they are professional traders’ preferred instruments because they prevent the perpetual fluctuation of contracts’ funding rates.

These fixed-month contracts usually trade at a slight premium to spot markets because investors demand more money to withhold the settlement. But this situation is not exclusive to crypto markets, so futures should trade at a 4% to 10% annualized premium in healthy markets.

Bitcoin 3-month futures’ annualized premium. Source: Laevitas

The Bitcoin’s futures premium flirted with the negative area in mid-June, something is typically seen during extremely bearish periods. The mere 1% basis rate, or annualized premium, reflects professional traders’ unwillingness to create leverage long (bull) positions. Investors remain skeptical of the price recovery despite the low cost of opening a bullish trade.

One must also analyze the Bitcoin options markets to exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument. For example, the 25% delta skew is a telling sign when market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

In bear markets, options investors give higher odds for a price dump, causing the skew indicator to rise above 12%, while the opposite holds true during bullish markets.

Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas

The 30-day delta skew peaked at 21% on July 14 as Bitcoin struggled to break the $20,000 resistance. The higher the indicator, the less inclined options traders are to offer downside protection.

More recently, the indicator moved below the 12% threshold, entering a neutral area, and no longer sitting at the levels reflecting extreme aversion. Consequently, options markets currently display a balanced risk assessment between a bull run and another re-test of the $20,000 area.

Some metrics suggest that the Bitcoin cycle bottom is behind us, but until traders have a better view of the regulatory outlook and centralized crypto service providers’ liquidity as the Three Arrows Capital crisis unfolds, the odds of breaking above $24,000 remain uncertain.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Read Entire Article
Tags: CointelegraphCryptocurrencyInvestmentMining Bitcoin
Share76Tweet47

Related Posts

Bitcoin Can Save California’s Largest Pension Fund From Its Existential Problems

Bitcoin Can Save California’s Largest Pension Fund From Its Existential Problems

by Jon Hartney
June 8, 2023
0

California’s largest pension fund has significant unfunded liabilities Operators owe it to the workforce to explore how Bitcoin can

SEC’s crypto actions surged 183% in 6 months after the FTX collapse

SEC’s crypto actions surged 183% in 6 months after the FTX collapse

by Jon Hartney
June 8, 2023
0

The regulator stepped up enforcement actions in the crypto space following the revelations that took place around FTX

SEC is killing innovation in the United States — 1inch co-founder

SEC is killing innovation in the United States — 1inch co-founder

by Jon Hartney
June 8, 2023
0

US-based Web3 companies and cryptocurrency exchanges could be pushed offshore following enforcement actions against

NFT platform Enjin forks Polkadot parachain Efinity to new mainnet

NFT platform Enjin forks Polkadot parachain Efinity to new mainnet

by Jon Hartney
June 8, 2023
0

Enjin chief technology officer Witek Radomski said the new blockchain aims to promote creativity by facilitating the

Polygon Labs president testifies on democratizing the internet with Web3, blockchains

Polygon Labs president testifies on democratizing the internet with Web3, blockchains

by Jon Hartney
June 8, 2023
0

The US House Committee explores blockchain and Web3’s future as industry leaders testify on democratizing the

Load More
  • Trending
  • Comments
  • Latest
NEXO risks 50% drop due to regulatory pressure and investor concerns

NEXO risks 50% drop due to regulatory pressure and investor concerns

September 30, 2022
51% of Ethereum blocks are now compliant with OFAC standards, raising censorship concerns

51% of Ethereum blocks are now compliant with OFAC standards, raising censorship concerns

October 14, 2022
All aboard! Elon Musk’s Vegas Loop now taking Dogecoin payments

All aboard! Elon Musk’s Vegas Loop now taking Dogecoin payments

July 7, 2022
Zero-knowledge KYC could solve the privacy vs compliance conundrum: VC partner

Zero-knowledge KYC could solve the privacy vs compliance conundrum: VC partner

October 11, 2022
All aboard! Elon Musk’s Vegas Loop now taking Dogecoin payments

All aboard! Elon Musk’s Vegas Loop now taking Dogecoin payments

0
Crypto owners banned from working on US Government crypto policies

Crypto owners banned from working on US Government crypto policies

0
Korean startup Uprise lost $20M shorting LUNC

Korean startup Uprise lost $20M shorting LUNC

0
Ethereum testnet Merge mostly successful — ‘Hiccups will not delay the Merge.’

Ethereum testnet Merge mostly successful — ‘Hiccups will not delay the Merge.’

0
Bitcoin Can Save California’s Largest Pension Fund From Its Existential Problems

Bitcoin Can Save California’s Largest Pension Fund From Its Existential Problems

June 8, 2023
SEC’s crypto actions surged 183% in 6 months after the FTX collapse

SEC’s crypto actions surged 183% in 6 months after the FTX collapse

June 8, 2023
SEC is killing innovation in the United States — 1inch co-founder

SEC is killing innovation in the United States — 1inch co-founder

June 8, 2023
NFT platform Enjin forks Polkadot parachain Efinity to new mainnet

NFT platform Enjin forks Polkadot parachain Efinity to new mainnet

June 8, 2023

XBT.Market

This website is an automated news feed powered by the Nebulome cloud system. The site is made possible by YYC TECH Consulting and Alberta Digital Mining Company. As a team with major crypto and bitcoin enthusiasm, we have curated major sources of news, trading and financial data to bring you, our viewer, an unbiased source of truth.

Recent Posts

  • Bitcoin Can Save California’s Largest Pension Fund From Its Existential Problems June 8, 2023
  • SEC’s crypto actions surged 183% in 6 months after the FTX collapse June 8, 2023
  • SEC is killing innovation in the United States — 1inch co-founder June 8, 2023
  • NFT platform Enjin forks Polkadot parachain Efinity to new mainnet June 8, 2023
  • Polygon Labs president testifies on democratizing the internet with Web3, blockchains June 8, 2023

News Categories

  • Bitcoin
  • Blockchain
  • Business
  • Market

Tags

bitcoinMagzine Cointelegraph Cryptocurrency insidebitcoins Investment Mining Bitcoin NewsBTC

Quicklinks

  • Home
  • Coins MarketCap
  • Crypto Exchanges
  • Crypto Calculator
  • Top Gainers and Loser
  • News
  • Contact Us

© 2022 Xbt.Market - Powered by YYC Tech Consulting & ADMCO.

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Coins MarketCap
  • Crypto Exchanges
  • Crypto Calculator
  • Top Gainers and Loser
  • News
  • Contact Us

© 2022 Xbt.Market by Nebulome.

  • bitcoinBitcoin(BTC)$26,417.00-1.48%
  • ethereumEthereum(ETH)$1,843.65-1.16%
  • USDEXUSDEX(USDEX)$1.07-0.53%
  • tetherTether(USDT)$1.000.08%
  • binancecoinBNB(BNB)$264.47-3.14%
  • usd-coinUSD Coin(USDC)$1.00-0.01%
  • rippleXRP(XRP)$0.52-2.22%
  • staked-etherLido Staked Ether(STETH)$1,841.52-1.09%
  • cardanoCardano(ADA)$0.327406-3.18%
  • dogecoinDogecoin(DOGE)$0.068076-0.09%
  • solanaSolana(SOL)$18.78-5.26%
  • matic-networkPolygon(MATIC)$0.78-1.94%
  • tronTRON(TRX)$0.0775430.29%
  • litecoinLitecoin(LTC)$87.93-2.44%
  • polkadotPolkadot(DOT)$5.01-2.21%
  • binance-usdBinance USD(BUSD)$1.000.09%
  • avalanche-2Avalanche(AVAX)$13.91-3.51%
  • shiba-inuShiba Inu(SHIB)$0.000008-0.59%
  • daiDai(DAI)$1.00-0.04%
  • wrapped-bitcoinWrapped Bitcoin(WBTC)$26,509.00-1.20%
  • uniswapUniswap(UNI)$4.63-1.36%
  • leo-tokenLEO Token(LEO)$3.520.26%
  • chainlinkChainlink(LINK)$5.99-1.51%
  • cosmosCosmos Hub(ATOM)$9.58-3.51%
  • okbOKB(OKB)$44.46-2.06%
  • moneroMonero(XMR)$144.35-0.93%
  • Aerarium FiAerarium Fi(AERA)$7.14-13.11%
  • ToncoinToncoin(TON)$1.65-0.21%
  • ethereum-classicEthereum Classic(ETC)$16.99-1.36%
  • stellarStellar(XLM)$0.087159-1.64%
  • bitcoin-cashBitcoin Cash(BCH)$111.79-0.57%
  • true-usdTrueUSD(TUSD)$1.00-0.06%
  • lido-daoLido DAO(LDO)$2.18-8.42%
  • internet-computerInternet Computer(ICP)$4.16-3.53%
  • filecoinFilecoin(FIL)$4.12-4.10%
  • quant-networkQuant(QNT)$111.21-4.22%
  • crypto-com-chainCronos(CRO)$0.059429-0.43%
  • AptosAptos(APT)$7.73-3.45%
  • hedera-hashgraphHedera(HBAR)$0.048447-1.81%
  • GGTKNGGTKN(GGTKN)$0.1121180.75%
  • ArbitrumArbitrum(ARB)$1.13-2.58%
  • vechainVeChain(VET)$0.017833-3.47%
  • nearNEAR Protocol(NEAR)$1.41-3.86%
  • apecoinApeCoin(APE)$2.91-1.98%
  • the-graphThe Graph(GRT)$0.114126-1.47%
  • paxos-standardPax Dollar(USDP)$1.00-0.06%
  • fraxFrax(FRAX)$1.00-0.08%
  • EdgecoinEdgecoin(EDGT)$1.00-0.03%
  • eosEOS(EOS)$0.890.88%
  • rocket-poolRocket Pool(RPL)$47.47-1.79%
  • the-sandboxThe Sandbox(SAND)$0.487890-4.28%
  • algorandAlgorand(ALGO)$0.124900-5.91%
  • blockstackStacks(STX)$0.641.48%
  • elrond-erd-2MultiversX(EGLD)$34.96-3.03%
  • optimismOptimism(OP)$1.38-2.30%
  • Rocket Pool ETHRocket Pool ETH(RETH)$1,981.03-1.14%
  • aaveAave(AAVE)$59.77-2.03%
  • fantomFantom(FTM)$0.293119-2.13%
  • render-tokenRender(RNDR)$2.22-3.94%
  • tezosTezos(XTZ)$0.84-3.89%
  • decentralandDecentraland(MANA)$0.417941-5.29%
  • theta-tokenTheta Network(THETA)$0.76-1.31%
  • usddUSDD(USDD)$1.000.09%
  • immutable-xImmutableX(IMX)$0.72-0.38%
  • axie-infinityAxie Infinity(AXS)$6.24-4.65%
  • BitDAOBitDAO(BIT)$0.482989-1.82%
  • WhiteBIT TokenWhiteBIT Token(WBT)$4.820.09%
  • radixRadix(XRD)$0.067060-1.49%
  • havvenSynthetix Network(SNX)$2.13-4.07%
  • Bitget TokenBitget Token(BGB)$0.4825211.25%
  • kucoin-sharesKuCoin(KCS)$6.85-3.03%
  • flowFlow(FLOW)$0.63-3.86%
  • neoNEO(NEO)$9.00-2.88%
  • galaGALA(GALA)$0.026055-2.16%
  • curve-dao-tokenCurve DAO(CRV)$0.76-2.55%
  • CloutContractsCloutContracts(CCS)$52.461,000.00%
  • bitcoin-cash-svBitcoin SV(BSV)$30.28-1.18%
  • terra-lunaTerra Luna Classic(LUNC)$0.0000991.94%
  • gemini-dollarGemini Dollar(GUSD)$1.00-0.17%
  • makerMaker(MKR)$629.590.18%
  • gatechain-tokenGate(GT)$4.06-1.95%
  • injective-protocolInjective(INJ)$6.93-3.44%
  • kavaKava(KAVA)$0.99-11.05%
  • klay-tokenKlaytn(KLAY)$0.164336-7.44%
  • marumaruNFTmarumaruNFT(MARU)$0.24991121.40%
  • bittorrentBitTorrent(BTT)$0.0000010.31%
  • iotaIOTA(MIOTA)$0.180107-1.80%
  • pax-goldPAX Gold(PAXG)$1,920.53-0.54%
  • Tokenize XchangeTokenize Xchange(TKX)$6.14-3.17%
  • casper-networkCasper Network(CSPR)$0.044045-0.46%
  • compound-ethercETH(CETH)$37.04-1.17%
  • tether-goldTether Gold(XAUT)$1,946.36-0.72%
  • conflux-tokenConflux(CFX)$0.228311-4.71%
  • xdce-crowd-saleXDC Network(XDC)$0.0345792.19%
  • chilizChiliz(CHZ)$0.087628-4.12%
  • huobi-tokenHuobi(HT)$2.85-0.95%
  • binaryxBinaryX(BNX)$165.90-5.97%
  • PepePepe(PEPE)$0.000001-3.82%
  • mina-protocolMina Protocol(MINA)$0.491925-2.32%
  • gmxGMX(GMX)$51.20-2.92%