After a two-month breather near its all-time high, Bitcoin (BTC) appears ready to unleash another haymaker, according to crypto analyst Axel Adler. Adler predicts a 300-day bull run fueled by healthy short-term holder profits and a market with plenty of fight left in it.
Profitable Punches And Room For More
Adler throws down the gauntlet with data on Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR). This metric reveals if short-term holders are cashing out at a profit.
Currently, the 90-day moving average for STH SOPR sits at 1.015, indicating short-term holders are in the green but haven’t reached the knockout blow levels seen in previous bull runs (around 1.06). This suggests there’s room for more profit-taking punches before the bulls grow weary.
I’ve already mentioned that the bull market is in full swing. Barring any unforeseen Black Swan events, it could last for approximately another +/- 300 days.
This is based on the P&L analysis of Short-Term Holders with a 90-day moving average. pic.twitter.com/30OgsruvOi
— Axel
Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) May 21, 2024
Open Interest: The Untapped Reserve Of Strength
Another weapon in the bull’s arsenal is Open Interest (OI), a metric reflecting the total amount of outstanding derivative contracts (futures and options) held by traders.
While the recent price surge has been impressive, the 7-day moving average for OI hasn’t witnessed the dramatic rise seen in prior bull runs. This, according to Adler, signifies a hidden reserve of strength in the market, with more firepower waiting to be unleashed.
Technical Edge: Bulls Have Momentum On Their Side
But technical analysis isn’t just about fancy ratios and cryptic charts. Adler identifies several technical indicators that paint a bullish picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a gauge of momentum, hasn’t broken past 70, a level often associated with overbought conditions.
This suggests the current rally is healthy and sustainable. Additionally, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has surged past positive 0.05 territory, indicating significant capital inflow and a growing appetite for Bitcoin among investors.
Can The Bulls KO Resistance Levels?
While the bulls seem to have the upper hand, there are still hurdles to overcome. Key resistance levels loom at $79k, $88k, and $97k, identified using Fibonacci extension levels. These price points could act as roadblocks for the surging Bitcoin price.
However, if the current momentum continues, these resistance levels could be shattered, paving the way for a potential retest of the all-time high at $73,700 and a possible upward motion beyond.
Featured image from Screen Rant, chart from TradingView
