The state of the Treasury market isn’t looking great. With Japan, Russia and China dumping U.S. bonds, the question remains: Who will buy our debt?
This is a transcribed excerpt of the “Bitcoin Magazine Podcast,” hosted by P and Q. In this episode, they are joined by Greg Foss to talk about how owning bitcoin is the greatest asymmetric trade in history and why bitcoin could have a value of $2 million in today’s value.
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Greg Foss: [Discussing the current state of the U.S. Treasury bond market.] Japan is dumping it. Russia is dumping it. China is divesting from U.S. Treasury bonds. So who’s there to buy it? I guess the Treasury can buy their own bonds. What does that mean? QE (quantitative easing) infinity. Hence, bitcoin. So you see? Look, it’s pretty simple, guys. Don’t overthink this; play the odds, play probabilities.
I could lay out why bitcoin should someday trade for over $2 million in today’s dollars per bitcoin, based on that thesis. But again, it’s probability analysis. It’s sitting in a risk chair. It’s playing out different scenarios and then putting your money behind a scenario that has the greatest expected value. Which is not to say it has the greatest probability, it’s to say that the chance of it happening, multiplied by the price that occurs when it happens and expected value is the most opportune. That’s why I think bitcoin is the greatest asymmetric trade opportunity I have ever seen in my career hedging risk. I’m not 100% certain. But I’m pretty darn confident that at $20,000 per bitcoin, it represents an incredible asymmetric opportunity.
