Lawyer says SEC’s odds of beating Ripple are 2.3%, while Magic Eden has paused BRC-20 trades on Ordinals amid double-spending concerns.
Pro-XRP lawyer Jeremy Hogan has tipped a slim 2.3% chance for the United States securities regulator to win its case against Ripple after it signaled it will dismiss a lawsuit against two Ripple executives last week.
“For all Intents and Purposes” the Ripple v. SEC case is over,” the pro-XRP lawyer said in an Oct. 22 post.
"For all Intents and Purposes" the Ripple v. SEC case is over.
Yes, important hearings will be held in the coming months (deciding a judgment of up to $770 million is of course important).
But, YOUR time for hand wringing over this case is done. IMO.
— Jeremy Hogan (@attorneyjeremy1) October 21, 2023
“The SEC dismissed the rest of the case, so there will be no trial next year, Hogan said, adding that the facts have been set and that “nothing new or surprising” will be coming out.
Last week, lawyers representing the SEC said it planned to dismiss all claims against Ripple’s CEO Brad Garlinghouse and executive chair Chris Larsen, which was seen by Ripple CLO Stuart Alderoty as a “surrender by the SEC.”
In the X thread, Hogan said he expects a final judgment to be delivered in 2024 but noted that a settlement or appeal from one or both parties is also possible.
Luckily, we have statistics which tell us!
As you see below, the SEC has a 14.2% chance of winning on appeal. 14.2%.
And I think it's fair to say that the manner in which the Judge wrote her opinion (very fact based), at a minimum, does not increase that chance for the SEC. pic.twitter.com/LTsOU5eEgE
— Jeremy Hogan (@attorneyjeremy1) October 21, 2023
Should the SEC appeal, the regulator would theoretically have a 14.2% chance of winning, said Hogan. However, SEC’s path to victory will be a long and strenuous one involving not settling, winning on appeal, getting through more hearings and then winning on a final appeal put forward by Ripple — if it ever gets to that point.
“Because of the way the Judge wrote her Order, the Appellate court would have to send the case back down to the trial Judge for FURTHER judicial findings and determinations!”
“SO, that’s why I say that “for all Intents and Purposes” this case is over.”
“The chance of the SEC winning is exactly 2.367%. Same odds as the Jets winning the Super Bowl!” he added.
SEC asks for default judgment against Coinbase inside trader
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission has filed a default judgment against one of the three individuals involved in Coinbase’s insider trading scandal.
The SEC said the defendant, Sameer Ramani, was served on May 26, 2023 and that Ramani hasn’t filed any pleadings or other defenses to the Complaint or Amended Complaint filed by the securities regulator.
“Accordingly, the SEC respectfully requests that the Clerk of Court enter default against Defendant Ramani,” the SEC said in an Oct. 19 filing.
The SEC noted that “Ramani is believed to currently be in India,” in its initial filing on July 21, 2022.
The securities regulator asserted in its initial complaint that Ishan Wahi, a former manager in Coinbase’s Assets and Investing Products group, repeatedly tipped material, non-public information about the timing and content of Coinbase’s “listing announcements” to his brother, Nikhil and Ramani (a close friend).
Nikhil and Ramani used this information to trade ahead of multiple listing announcements, earning at least $1.1 million in illicit profits, the SEC alleged.
The Wahi brothers reached a settlement with the SEC in late May after Ishan Wahi pleaded guilty to two counts of conspiracy to commit wire fraud in February.
Magic Eden pauses BRC-20 trades as community raises alarm over double spending
Nonfungible token marketplace Magic Eden has suspended BRC-20 trading on Ordinals amid community concerns around the risks of double-spending.
“We’ve temporarily paused BRC-20 trading to best protect users until full ord consensus across all BRC-20,” Magic Eden on Bitcoin explained in an Oct. 22 post on X.
“All other trading remains live on Magic Eden,” the team added.
We’ve temporarily paused BRC-20 trading to best protect users until full ord consensus across all BRC-20
All other trading remains live on Magic Eden in the meantime!
— Magic Eden on Bitcoin (@MEonBTC) October 22, 2023
On Oct. 22, users began posting concerns about the risk of double-spending. The founder of Ordinal Fomojis, Sanj, said the issue is due to different marketplaces using different versions of Ordinals software:
“Currently different marketplaces are using different versions of ord which are indexing different inscription numbers.”
I would be careful trading BRC20’s at the moment.
There’s currently a risk of double spending due to a recent issue in ord.
Currently different marketplaces are using different versions of ord which are indexing different inscription numbers.
— Sanj ️ (@SanjFomojis) October 22, 2023
Related: Ordinals good or bad for Bitcoin? Supporters and opposers raise voices
Ordinals platform UniSat Wallet also acknowledged the BRC-20 indexing dilemma but decided not to suspend BRC-20 trading.
“We are monitoring what contributors and indexers are doing and will keep our users informed,” UniSat Wallet said in an Oct. 22 post.
We have been made aware of a brc-20 indexing mismatch due to different versions of the ord software.
UniSat Wallet and services are aligned with the current ord version 0.9 ensuring correct matching results with https://t.co/SB4uYoPS0G.
We are monitoring what contributors…
— UniSat Wallet – Store, Inscribe and Search. (@unisat_wallet) October 22, 2023
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The Ripple case is ‘over’
