Bitcoin and select altcoins are looking strong at the start of October, but will the flashpan bullish momentum last?
The United States legislators in the House and Senate came to a temporary agreement on Sep. 30 and averted a government shutdown for 45 days. This news could have acted as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s (BTC) sharp rally on Oct. 1. Additionally, the historically strong performance of Bitcoin in October could have boosted sentiment further.
The U.S. stock markets are also in a sweet spot in October. Data from the Stock Trader’s Almanac shows that the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has risen by an average of 0.9% in October, between 1950 and 2021. However, it does not mean that the bulls can be carefree because the stock market weathered one of its worst declines in the Black Monday crash in October 1987.
While a short-term up-move is possible in the cryptocurrency markets, it is unlikely to start a runaway rally. Higher levels are likely to witness profit-booking as the skyrocketing U.S. dollar index (DXY) could keep the bulls on the edge of their seats.
What are the important overhead resistance levels in Bitcoin and altcoins that may attract sellers? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
S&P 500 Index price analysis
The S&P 500 Index plunged below the formidable support at 4,325 on Sep. 22. That completed a bearish head and shoulders pattern, indicating the start of a downward move.
Usually, the price turns around and retests the breakdown level, which in this case is 4,325. That happened on Sep. 29. The neckline of the setup is likely to witness a tough battle between the bulls and the bears.
If the price turns down and breaks below 4,238, it will indicate that bears are in control. That could accelerate selling and the index may dive to the pattern target of 4,043.
Any recovery attempt is likely to face selling at 4,325 and then at the 20-day exponential moving average ($4,370). A break above this resistance will be the first sign of strength. The index could then ascend to the downtrend line.
U.S. dollar index price analysis
The U.S. dollar index has witnessed a scintillating run in the past several days. The bulls propelled the price above the overhead resistance of 106 on Sep. 26, indicating the start of a new uptrend.
Sellers tried to pull the price back below the breakout level of 106 on Sep. 29 but the long tail on the candlestick shows solid buying at lower levels. The bulls will try to flip the 106 level into support. If they are successful, the index could rally to 108.
The bears are unlikely to surrender easily. They will try to drag the price back below 106 and then the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, it will trap the aggressive bulls. The index may then descend to the 50-day simple moving average ($103).
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin surged above the immediate resistance of $27,500 on Oct. 1 and then stretched the rally above $28,143 on Oct. 2. The ease with which $28,143 was conquered shows that more is likely to come.
The bulls will try to push the price to $31,000 where they are likely to encounter solid resistance from the bears. If the price turns down sharply from this level, it will suggest that the BTC/USDT pair remains stuck inside the large range between $31,000 and $24,800.
The first support on the downside is $28,143 and then the 20-day EMA ($26,862). If the price slips back below $28,143, it may trap the aggressive bulls. That could then pull the price to the 20-day EMA. Sellers will have to yank the price below this level if they want to seize control.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) pierced the 50-day SMA ($1,652) on Sep. 29 and followed that up with another sharp rally on Oct. 1. That pushed the price to the overhead resistance at $1,746.
The 20-day EMA ($1,644) has turned up and the relative strength index (RSI) is above the 64 level, indicating that the bulls are in command. That enhances the prospects of a rally above $1,746. If that happens, the ETH/USDT pair will complete a double bottom pattern. This setup has a target objective of $1,959.
Sellers will make every effort to halt the recovery at $1,746. They will have to drag the price back below the moving averages to weaken the positive momentum. The pair may then extend its stay inside the range for some more time.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) turned down from the 50-day SMA ($216) on Sep. 29 and 30 but found support at the 20-day EMA ($214). This suggests a positive sentiment where dips are being purchased.
The moving averages are on the verge of a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that bulls have the edge. A break and close above $220 will suggest the start of a new uptrend. The BNB/USDT pair could first rally to $235 and subsequently to $250.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from $220, the bears will again attempt to tug the pair below the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, it will indicate that the consolidation may extend for a few more days.
XRP price analysis
XRP (XRP) rose above the symmetrical triangle pattern on Sep. 29 and the bulls held the retest of the breakout level on Sep. 30. This suggests that bulls are back in the game.
Buyers will next try to drive the price to the overhead resistance at $0.56. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a rally above it could indicate the start of a new uptrend toward the pattern target of $0.64.
On the other hand, if the price turns down from $0.56, it will suggest that the bears have not given up and they continue to sell on rallies. That could restrict the XRP/USDT pair inside the range between $0.41 and $0.56 for a while longer.
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) blasted above the $22.30 overhead resistance on Oct. 1, indicating that the bulls are on a comeback.
The sharp up-move has pushed the RSI into the overbought space, suggesting that the rally may soon face resistance. The bears may attempt to stall the recovery at $25.50 and then again at $27.12. If the price turns down from this level, it will signal that the $14 to $27.12 range remains intact.
The important support to watch on the downside is the 20-day EMA ($20.50). Sellers will have to yank the SOL/USDT pair back below this level to weaken the bullish tempo.
Related: BTC price knocks on $28.5K as trader says Bitcoin ‘reeks of disbelief’
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) soared above the downtrend line and the 50-day SMA ($0.25) on Oct. 1, invalidating the developing bearish descending triangle pattern.
Generally, the failure of a bearish setup is a positive sign as bulls who have been waiting on the sidelines jump in to buy. However, before that, the price may turn down and retest the breakout level.
If the level holds, it will signal that the bulls have flipped the downtrend line into support. The ADA/USDT pair could then start an up-move to $0.29 and thereafter to $0.32.
On the contrary, if the price turns down and re-enters the triangle, it will indicate that the markets have rejected the higher levels. The pair may then retest the important support at $0.24.
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) rose above the 20-day EMA ($0.06) on Sep. 29 and reached the 50-day SMA ($0.06) on Oct. 1. This shows that the bulls are trying to start an up-move.
The 20-day EMA is flattish but the RSI has jumped into the positive zone, indicating that the momentum is turning positive. A close above the 50-day SMA will open the gates for a possible rally to $0.07. This level may act as a minor hurdle but if crossed, the DOGE/USDT pair is likely to climb to $0.08.
Time is running out for the bears. If they want to prevent the rally, they will have to quickly tug the price back below the 20-day EMA. The pair may then retest the crucial support at $0.06.
Toncoin price analysis
Toncoin’s (TON) relief rally fizzled out at $2.31 on Sep. 28, indicating that the bears are selling at higher levels. The price turned down but the bulls held the $2.07 support on Oct. 1.
The bears renewed their selling on Oct. 2 and pulled the price below the vital support at $2.07. If the price sustains below this level, the selling could intensify and the TON/USDT pair risks tumbling down to the 50-day SMA ($1.84).
On the upside, the bulls will have to drive the price above $2.31 to open the doors for a possible retest of the overhead resistance at $2.59. This level may again attract aggressive selling by the bears.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
