BTC price retracing deeper than $25,000 is “possible,” analysis warns, with $28,300 the line in the sand for Bitcoin bulls.
Bitcoin (BTC) stayed static at the July 31 Wall Street open as analysis warned that the net was closing in for bulls.
$28,300 “last line of defence” for BTC price
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed the BTC price as it greeted the last trading day of July with more sideways behavior.
Much like the weekend and the week prior, nothing seemed able to effect a major trend change, while a brief spurt above $29,500 after the weekly close provided the most interesting intraday event.
“BTC took out $29.5k last night, but so far bulls haven’t been able to muster enough momentum to advance. All eyes are on the monthly close which could open the door to some volatility,” monitoring resource Material Indicators wrote in part of its latest analysis.
Uploading a snapshot of the BTC/USD order book on Binance, Material Indicators warned that $29,500 was becoming an increasingly popular trigger for sellers, and that bulls needed to overcome it next.
Nearby, the 50-day and 100-day moving averages (MAs) — at $29,450 and $28,460, respectively — formed key trend lines to the upside and downside.
“I’ve been saying for months that the market needs to print candles above the 100-Week MA for us to even consider a bull market breakout. We’ve yet to even test it, but bulls have managed to maintain the range for an extended period of time,” Material Indicators continued.
“Today is actually the 8th consecutive day of testing support at the 50-Day MA, and even though the 50-Day has held, resistance at $29.5k is replenishing. If bulls can’t clear it, I expect a run at the lows with $28.3k as the last line of defense. The question for me is whether bitcoin will bounce from the $28s or extend to $25k and beyond. All of these moves are possible, the mystery is in what order and in what timeline they play out.”
Elsewhere, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital noted that on weekly timeframes, Bitcoin was channeling its behavior from early 2021, before its current cycle’s all-time highs.
For the first time since January 2021, #BTC is in the process of turning the black ~$29300 level into support in a new uptrend
This is history in the making$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/gECVTRRURj
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) July 31, 2023
“BTC is still at the ~$29250 level and acting as support going into the July Monthly Close,” additional analysis read.
“Last month, $BTC broke ~$29250 after months of this level acting as resistance. And this month BTC is in the process of retesting it into new support.”
Volumes plummet in flat trading landscape
A further 2021 comparison concerned on-chain transaction volumes.
Related: BTC price ‘fireworks’ after monthly close? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
As revealed by fellow trader Mikybull Crypto, volumes are at their lowest in over two years — something which for him suggests only one outcome will result.
The 7-day average of #Bitcoin spot trading volume has sunk to levels not seen since the start of 2021.#Bitcoin IV is also at its yearly lowest level.
This indicates massive incoming volatility that will skyrocket $BTC to a new level. pic.twitter.com/nmRCbrGbGb
— Mikybull Crypto (@MikybullCrypto) July 31, 2023
As Cointelegraph reported, various market participants expect a volatile breakout on BTC/USD after weeks of barely any movement.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
