Bitcoin may finally get a trend identity after the July monthly close is done, one trader suggests, with BTC price action wedged below $30,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) heads into a new week, with a new monthly close still stuck in one of its narrowest-ever ranges.
Acting in an area just below $30,000, BTC price performance has frustrated or simply bored traders over the past week — could a breakout come next?
This is the question on every market participant’s mind as the week begins with the July monthly close and the chance for associated volatility.
While some believe that Bitcoin is, in fact, overdue for a comedown, data suggests that buying pressure is returning at current levels. Add to that a potential long-term bull flag due to confirm on the monthly close, and all might not be so bad for Bitcoin bulls.
As a quiet macro week shifts the focus to other potential price triggers for crypto, Cointelegraph takes a look at the major topics for moving markets in the coming days and beyond.
Sticky BTC price range could shift after July monthly close
Bitcoin was infamously stable last week, with not even the United States interest rate hike and accompanying macroeconomic data managing to shift its tiny trading range.
BTC price observers have had to console themselves with a corridor between $29,000 and $29,500 — one which is still in force at the time of writing, as per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
While the weekly close did offer some snap moves up and down, a short-term trend remains conspicuously lacking.
On the radar next is the monthly close, which is currently due to see BTC/USD lock in monthly losses of 3.5%.
“The market is going to try to shake you out as we move to and thru the Monthly close,” monitoring resource Material Indicators wrote in part of its latest commentary.
An accompanying chart of the BTC/USD order book on the largest global crypto exchange Binance showed the current trading range clearly defined with bid and ask liquidity.
On the topic of liquidity, popular trader Daan Crypto Trades delineated the significant levels to watch on low timeframes.
“The ~29K and ~29.6K levels correspond nicely with out current low timeframe range so good to keep watching those regions,” he told Twitter followers prior to the weekly close alongside data from CoinGlass.
CoinGlass likewise showed that, historically, July had been a “green” month for Bitcoin for the past six years, with the exception of 6.6% losses in 2019.
Fellow trader Jelle, meanwhile, predicted that the coming week would form the lull before the storm for markets.
“Expecting this week to be slow, but fireworks to start next week. Preparing accordingly,” he revealed, adding that he was already accumulating BTC.
MACD signal forms key Bitcoin bull argument
Despite being on course to close July at a loss, Bitcoin is exciting traders on monthly timeframes for another reason.
The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator is due to confirm a bullish crossover, which traditionally precedes periods of protracted BTC price upside.
MACD uses exponential moving averages (EMAs) to plot two lines on an asset’s price chart, and their interplay can form useful advance buy and sell signals.
As various market participants noted over the past week, the monthly close is still due to lock in a bullish EMA cross on the one-month BTC/USD chart.
#Bitcoin is 1.5 days away from locking in a monthly bullish MACD cross pic.twitter.com/aV2vCmWOaJ
— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) July 30, 2023
As Cointelegraph reported, trading resource Stockmoney Lizards has already compared the potential impact of the upcoming cross to a similar event in late 2015, when Bitcoin was preparing the ground for its run to old all-time highs two years later.
Now, it is not just monthly but also daily MACD improving prospects for bulls.
On one-day timeframes, analyst Kevin Svenson described both MACD and relative strength index (RSI) as being “in a peculiar position” due to the lack of momentum.
“We are entering the usual ‘completion zone’ where the market makes a move. Sentiment is extremely neutral right now,” he added in Twitter comments.
A weekly MACD cross in August 2021, meanwhile, came as Bitcoin headed to its current all-time high of $69,000, which it saw just three months later.
U.S. jobs data follows hectic macro week
An altogether calmer week for macroeconomic data means less of a chance that risk assets, including crypto, will find something to react to.
Nonetheless, unemployment data will form the focus for the mood in the U.S., this following repeated signals that inflation is both abating and that the labor market has taken the inflationary cycle in its stride.
“A lot of important jobs data this week,” financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized.
Kobeissi noted that around one quarter of S&P 500 firms was due to report earnings over the week.
“Economic data remains incredibly important as the Fed determines what to do in Sept,” it added, referencing the impact of data on Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.
Key Events This Week:
1. ISM Manufacturing data – Tuesday
2. JOLTS Jobs data – Tuesday
3. ADP Payrolls data – Wednesday
4. Jobless Claims data – Thursday
5. July Jobs report – Friday
6. ~25% of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings
A lot of important jobs data this week.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 30, 2023
Elsewhere, U.S. dollar strength was tipped to take a fresh downturn, having rebounded as the Fed hiked rates last week after a June pause.
For investor and trader Miles Johal, 102 formed formidable resistance for the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), and Bitcoin should benefit as a result.
“Expect HTF bullish action from $BTC and other risk assets while the DXY continues this downtrend,” part of his latest social media analysis read.
DXY at first key resistance of 102.
Roll over for another lower high here or the trendline above is still unbroken at this time.
Expect HTF bullish action from $BTC and other risk assets while the DXY continues this downtrend. https://t.co/p45kPYxPvS pic.twitter.com/nMlfPd4gqt
— Miles (@JohalMiles) July 30, 2023
Stablecoin investors “load up” with Bitcoin under $30,000
Last week was all about the percentage of the BTC supply now in the hand of long-term holders — an all-time high of 75%.
Now, investors appear to be anticipating new volatility by accumulating stablecoins into the monthly close.
As noted by research firm Santiment, the trend is visible across multiple stablecoins, including the two largest — Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC).
“Key whale & shark stablecoin wallets appear to be loading up during Bitcoin’s visit below $30k here at the end of the month. Tether, USDCoin, BinanceUSD, & Dai are all seeing supply shifting into these key wallets,” it revealed alongside a chart showing the latest flows.
The move comes as stablecoin accumulation itself preempts a return to the upside for BTC’s price. Last week, it was crypto exchange Bitfinex in the spotlight.
“Bitfinex Bitcoin to stables ratio blows up in advance of every big bull move. A major leading indicator,” market cyclist and on-chain analyst Cole Garner said at the time.
Whale wallet numbers hit a four-month low
At the same time, Cointelegraph has been reporting on interesting shifts in whales’ BTC exposure.
Related: BlackRock ETF will be ‘big rubber yes stamp’ for Bitcoin — Charles Edwards
The largest-volume investor cohort has been undergoing what on-chain analytics firm Glassnode called “noteworthy” changes, with net exposure down 255,000 BTC since May 30.
The number of wallets holding 1,000 BTC ($294 million) or more now bears this out, with Glassnode recording the lowest such wallet numbers in four months.
As of July 31, there were 2,006 wallets with a balance of at least 1,000 BTC, down by around 35 since the start of July.
By contrast, wallets with at least 0.01 BTC ($294) hit new all-time highs of 12,214,918 on the same day.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
