The crypto market is up today, reflecting market participants’ expectations that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in July after a weak jobs report.
The crypto market is up today with slight gains of over 1% in the past 24 hours as investors assess the latest United States’ jobs report.
Slowdown in jobs market coincides with crypto market rising
On July 7, the crypto market’s net worth rose nearly 1.5% to $1.14 trillion after falling for three days in a row. That includes a rebound across the market’s top-ranking assets, with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) gaining a modest 1.8% and 1.75%. Meanwhile, Solana (SOL) was one of the best performers jumping 8.5%.
The crypto market’s intraday recovery coincided with the release of the U.S. Labor Department report. The labor market added 209,000 jobs in June compared to 306,000 in the previous month, prompting hopes that the Federal Reserve may ignore raising interest rates in its July meeting.
“Hawks could push for a September hike,” noted Nick Timiraos, chief economic correspondent at the Wall Street Journal, adding:
“Doves will want to at least skip and give more time to see if the data decay by Halloween. But the June jobs report will be old news by September. It neither shows a sudden stop or a big re-acceleration in hiring.”
Moreover, the U.S. dollar index (DXY), which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of top foreign currencies, weakened after the jobs report headline, dropping to a two-week low.
Interestingly, the crypto market rose during the dollar’s decline, displaying negative correlation with the greenback on the hourly chart, and climbing to nearly $1.2 total market capitalization.
A technical bounce
In addition, the crypto market’s bounce on July 7 occurred near its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) near $1.12 trillion.
As shown in the image above, the 50-day EMA has limited the crypto market’s downside bias since late June 2023. For instance, the wave’s last retest on June 29 preceded a 7.5% rebound in the crypto market’s valuation.
What’s ahead for the crypto market?
Despite weaker monthly jobs data, the market sees a 95% probability of the Fed hiking rates by 25 basis points (bps) in July. That risks limiting the crypto market’s upside prospects in the month with one technical pattern potentially hinting at downside ahead.
Related: Here’s what happened in crypto today
Notably, the crypto market has formed what appears to be head-and-shoulders (H&S), a bearish reversal pattern.
As a rule, this opens the possibility for a drop toward the neckline at around $1 trillion. Pending a decisive close, another drop toward $800 billion is on the cards.
Conversely, the crypto market’s rise toward $1.3 trillion may trigger an inverse-head-and-shoulders (IH&S) pattern.
This pattern is considered bullish and would have an upside target of over $2 trillion for the remainder of 2023, up about 100% from the current levels.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
