Bitcoin’s recovery attempts are still being judged against a larger structure that has controlled price action for months. An interesting technical analysis of the daily candlestick timeframe chart shows that Bitcoin is still following a descending channel, with every major rebound failing near the upper diagonal and every major sell-off finding a reaction near the lower boundary.
The latest rejection around $83,100 in May has now become the main focus, and Bitcoin is now moving back into the lower half of the channel, where the final bottom could be waiting.
Bitcoin’s Descending Channel Still Controls The Bigger Trend
Eight months into a correction path defined by lower highs and lower lows from $126,000, Bitcoin is showing no signs of deviation. The daily candlestick chart shows Bitcoin has transitioned into a broad descending channel that has stayed intact for these eight months.
The upper boundary has acted as resistance each time Bitcoin has attempted a stronger recovery, first around the $97,855 lower high and later around the $83,156 lower high. Each rejection has kept the larger bearish structure alive. The lower boundary has also been important. Bitcoin previously reacted near $82,167 before bouncing into the first major lower high, then fell again to around $60,000 in early February 2026.
The rejection move from the $83,156 resistance level in May also fits that same structure. Bitcoin is currently down by over 12% since that rejection and opened in June at around $73,670.
Now that Bitcoin is trending downwards, the projection is that the next move lower may not be just another ordinary lower low. The projection by a crypto analyst that goes by the name NoName on X places the projected end of the channel near $51,291, which can also be seen as the possible cycle bottom.
Prediction Markets Favor $60,000 Before $100,000
There are multiple technical outlooks that are predicting a further bottom before Bitcoin embarks on a new rally. These predictions also line up with a separate sentiment signal from prediction markets.
Most notably, prediction markets Kalshi Crypto currently has a 60% implied chance that Bitcoin hits $60,000 before $100,000, meaning crypto participants are currently assigning more weight to another major downside move before a six-figure recovery
Kalshi also gives Bitcoin only a 34% chance of moving back above $100,000 before January 2027, which is a major reversal from the start of 2026, when the market priced a 94% implied probability of BTC trading above $100,000 by the middle of the year.
Bitcoin would still need to lose important support zones before that deeper target becomes realistic. The first test is whether sellers can keep the price above the middle of the channel at $70,000 and prevent another rebound back above $78,000 and $83,000.
