The newly created Polymarket wallets placed bets on the timing of a US strike against Iran, buying shares hours before the first explosions were reported in Tehran.
Six Polymarket traders earned roughly $1 million after accurately betting that the United States would strike Iran before the end of February, triggering insider trading suspicions.
The six wallets were all created in February and placed nearly all of their activity on contracts predicting the timing of a potential US attack, Bloomberg reported, citing data shared by analytics firm Bubblemaps SA. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.
The timing drew attention from onchain investigators, who said the pattern resembles behavior previously linked to suspected insider activity on prediction markets.
