Bitwise Asset Management is arguing that crypto’s current drawdown has the fingerprints of a cyclical low: weak prices alongside strengthening on-chain and business fundamentals, a pattern the firm says last appeared in Q1 2023 before a multi-year rally.
In its Q4 2025 “Crypto Market Review,” Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan frames the quarter as an unusually important inflection point precisely because the signals are not all moving in the same direction. “But sometimes—every once in a while—the charts are mixed,” Hougan wrote. “The last one I remember was Q1 2023. At the time, we were starting to rebound post-FTX, and the data was topsy-turvy; some up, some down, some sideways. In the two years that followed, crypto prices soared.”
Bitwise’s core claim rests on a divergence between market performance and usage metrics in Q4. The firm notes that Ethereum fell 29% over the quarter, even as Ethereum and Layer 2 transactions “soared to new all-time highs (up 24.5%).” Crypto equities also sold off, down 20% in Q4 by Bitwise’s measure while the underlying companies’ revenues were “on pace to grow 3x faster than any other sector of the stock market,” according to the report.
The price tape was undeniably heavy. The Bitwise 10 Large Cap Crypto Index fell 26.29% in Q4 and finished 2025 down 10.64% year-to-date; Bitcoin was down 23.48% in Q4 (down 6.26% in 2025), while Ethereum fell 28.59% in Q4 (down 11.03% in 2025).
Yet the report also shows the market retaining scale: total crypto market capitalization stood at roughly $2.78 trillion as of Dec. 31, with bitcoin representing 63.6% and ether about 12.9%.
Where Bitwise sees “green shoots” is in rails and revenue. The executive summary argues that “both stablecoin AUM and stablecoin transaction activity soared to new all-time highs,” presenting that as evidence a durable adoption wave is underway.
Four Crypto Catalysts Bitwise Is Watching In 2026
Bitwise argues the market’s next leg will be shaped less by narrative rotation and more by identifiable catalysts, starting with US market-structure legislation. “All eyes are on the CLARITY Act,” the report says, describing it as a Senate-moving bill that could provide a “strong regulatory foundation” but also carries the risk of a weaker outcome or no bill at all.
The second catalyst is what the firm calls a “stablecoin supercycle,” positioning stablecoins as payment infrastructure that is increasingly decoupled from directional crypto beta. Bitwise writes that 2025 annual stablecoin transaction volume topped $32 trillion, up 73% year-over-year, “more than doubling Visa’s volume through the first nine months of the year,” and says that data “confirm[s] their arrival in the mainstream.”
The third is macro, specifically the coming change at the Federal Reserve. Bitwise notes Chair Jerome Powell’s “looming departure in May,” giving President Trump an opportunity to appoint new leadership. Between named candidates Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett, Bitwise says Hassett is viewed as the more dovish on rates and fiscal policy, adding that a dovish appointment would increase the likelihood of rate cuts and “should drive crypto assets higher.”
The fourth is plumbing: distribution at major US wealth platforms. Bitwise points to “initial wirehouse ETF flows” following Q4 approvals, writing that financial advisors at three of the four major wirehouses gained access to crypto ETFs in Q4 after previously being barred from recommending exposure. Those advisors “control ~$16 trillion in assets,” and Bitwise expects early flows to start slowly in Q1 before accelerating.
Hougan stops short of calling any single variable decisive, but ties the bottom thesis to whether the underlying data keeps improving. He wrote he was drafting the memo on Jan. 16 after crypto had already begun posting strong early-year returns and added: “If the fundamental data in this report stays steady, I think that trend could continue.”
At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.00 trillion.
