Did Morgan Stanley Orchestrate Bitcoin October Crash? Analysts Draw Correlations

Morgan Stanley’s filing for a Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF), coupled with MSCI’s decision to retain digital asset companies in its index, has ignited a wave of speculation among analysts. Notably, analysts from Bull Theory have alleged that these events could be indicative of a larger-scale market manipulation.

Bitcoin Market Manipulation? 

In a post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), the Bull Theory analysts drew attention to the timeline of events involving Bitcoin, arguing that the trajectory from its October crash to its subsequent recovery in January resembles an orchestrated setup supported by data.

The first significant trigger occurred on 10 October, when MSCI — previously a division of Morgan Stanley — proposed removing Digital Asset Treasury Companies (DATCOs) from its global indexes. 

This decision would affect firms like Strategy and Metaplanet, which hold substantial Bitcoin assets on their balance sheets. The implications were profound, given that MSCI’s indexes guide trillions of dollars in passive investments. 

If these companies were removed, institutional investors, including pension funds and ETFs, would be compelled to divest, leading to a substantial contraction in institutional exposure to Bitcoin and an immediate tightening of liquidity. 

Following that announcement, Bitcoin’s price plummeted by nearly $18,000, wiping out over $900 billion from the total crypto market cap.

Morgan Stanley And The MSCI Shift

The uncertainty continued with a consultation period that remained open until December 31. This three-month window of prolonged anxiety effectively froze investor demand for Bitcoin. 

Passive investors became wary, index-linked funds faced potential forced selling, and as a result, prices saw a stark decline—with Bitcoin dropping about 31% and altcoins suffering even more, marking the worst quarter for crypto markets since 2018.

However, the tide began to shift on January 1, 2026, as Bitcoin experienced an unexpected surge, rising 8% in just five days. This $7,300 increase, from $87,500 to $94,800, left many analysts puzzled, especially since the relentless selling had seemingly halted abruptly. 

The analysts noted that this sudden upturn could imply that insiders might have had prior knowledge of forthcoming developments. Then, the narrative shifted dramatically on January 5 and 6. In a matter of 24 hours, Morgan Stanley unveiled its plans for spot Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), and Solana ETFs. 

This was followed by MSCI announcing its decision not to proceed with the previously proposed exclusion of crypto-heavy companies from its indexes. 

A Calculated Move? 

The sequence of these events has led the analysts to present a narrative: MSCI initiated pressure by threatening index removals in October, leading to an extended period of uncertainty and suppressed prices. 

Once institutions had accumulated at lower prices, Morgan Stanley introduced its ETF, and MSCI subsequently removed the threat of exclusion, raising serious concerns about the possibility of coordinated efforts to manipulate market conditions.

Bull Theory analysts assert that as the market now transitions back towards liquidity, the same entities that potentially orchestrated the prior downturn may be strategically positioned to profit from the rebound. 

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $91,550, having retraced 2% from the $95,000 2-month high reached at the beginning of the week. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com