Crypto continues to show resilience with bitcoin (BTC) steadily trading around $70-$71k after briefly dropping below the $70k mark over the weekend, outperforming prior Middle East‑driven sell‑offs where thin liquidity exaggerated downside.
New QCP’s Market Colour argues that Trump’s failed push for Iran to reopen the Strait over the weekend set the scene for bitcoin’s start of the week. At first, risk assets slipped as traders braced for a spike in geopolitical danger, factoring in possible attacks on Iranian power facilities if the choke-point stayed shut. Once the deadline expired and Trump revealed that any strikes were being delayed due to “productive conversations”, the nerves calmed down a bit and crypto stabilized along with the rest of the risk complex.
An Era Shift For Bitcoin?
The kind of resilience BTC is showing may partly stem from reduced leverage in the market, but it could also hint at the very early beginnings of a new phase for BTC, where it no longer behaves like a straightforward peer to traditional risk assets.
The QCP report also suggests that bitcoin could increasingly function as a “neutral escape valve”, amidst US national debt passing $39 trillion, all the stagflation chatter and a classic policy trap for central banks (can’t ease aggressively or inflation would run rampant, can’t tighten without the risk of a recession).
Let’s not forget the core facts that could make bitcoin a neutral escape valve: BTC has a fixed supply cap of 21 million coins, while fiat can expand indefinitely as governments issue more debt and central banks monetize deficits. As US and global debt piles up, fiat increasingly depends on inflation, financial repression, or higher taxes to stay sustainable. However, BTC’s rules do not change with policy decisions. This is the basis on which investors see bitcoin as a neutral, permissionless asset that offers a way out of mounting fiat debt risk and potential currency debasement.
Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Will Not See A Proper Surge Until This Happens; Analyst
Geopolitical Unrest Drags On
Adding to all of this is the “yuan‑for‑passage” concept floated by Iran, which would effectively settle Hormuz access in Chinese yuan rather than USD, framing an incremental, still‑hypothetical step in de‑dollarization. Right now, the dollar is still firm and the US bond market continues to function, but repeated war scares and sanction risk keep re‑opening the conversation around neutral, permissionless settlement rails like bitcoin.
With past QCP notes arguing that BTC is no longer a straightforward high‑beta play but also not yet a full safe haven, the asset now lives in the in‑between. As the war drags on and US debt climbs, each new shock becomes a live test of whether BTC behaves more like a growth stock, a commodity hedge, or something structurally new in portfolios.
Cover image from Perplexity, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview
