For crypto this week, the story is not a token-specific catalyst. It is whether an oil shock tied to the US-Iran war turns into a broader inflation problem just as the market gets February CPI on Wednesday, March 11, followed by the second estimate of fourth-quarter US GDP and the delayed January PCE report on Friday, March 13.
Crypto Watchlist This Week
The market opened the week with energy first, everything else second. President Donald Trump said ending the war with Iran would be a “mutual” decision with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, signaling no obvious near-term off-ramp, while Brent crude surged as high as $119.50 a barrel and WTI to $119.48. Reuters reported that Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE had begun reducing oil production as the conflict and shipping disruption through Hormuz intensified. Notably, the oil supply shock is the largest in history.
BREAKING: The world is now experiencing its largest oil supply shock in history, losing nearly 20 million barrels of oil supply per day.
Top oil supply shocks:
1. Hormuz Closure (NOW): -20 million b/d
2. Iranian Revolution (1978): -5.5 million b/d
3. Yom Kippur War (1973): -4.5…— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 9, 2026
That is why the macro transmission matters so much for bitcoin and the entire crypto market. In a speech published Monday, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva put it plainly: “We are seeing resilience tested yet again by the new conflict in the Middle East. Important oil and gas facilities have suffered damage and stoppages; shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen by 90 percent. If the new conflict proves prolonged, it has clear and obvious potential to affect market sentiment, growth, and inflation.”
She added that every 10% increase in oil prices, if sustained through most of this year, could add 40 basis points to global headline inflation. Meanwhile, US oil prices staged one of their biggest reversals in history on Monday when hat G7 countries were reported releasing 400 million barrels of crude oil from reserves.
BREAKING: US oil prices are currently attempting one of their biggest reversals in history.
At 10:30 PM ET, US oil prices were up as much as +30% on the day.
Then, FT reported that G7 countries are considering releasing 400 million barrels of crude oil from reserves.
Less than… pic.twitter.com/G1uRHvkFxX
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 9, 2026
Wednesday’s CPI print is the first hard test. The last US CPI release, for January, showed headline inflation up 0.2% month on month and 2.4% year on year, with core CPI at 2.5% year on year. The February report is due at 8:30 a.m. ET on March 11, and market previews are looking for something in the 2.4%-2.5% annual range, with core inflation broadly steady near that zone as well. In other words, the baseline is not a dramatic reacceleration on paper; the problem is that markets now have to judge those numbers against an oil backdrop that worsened sharply after the survey period.
Crude oil is approaching $110, up ~$50 in the past month.
This comes as Goldman Sachs said in a weekend investor note that a sustained $10 rise in oil prices for three months could push U.S. CPI to around 3% by May. https://t.co/5vLjHAvab9 pic.twitter.com/JfTOQzwAll
— Shay Boloor (@StockSavvyShay) March 8, 2026
Friday is more layered. The GDP release is not a fresh quarter, but the second estimate for Q4 2025. The advance estimate showed US growth slowing to a 1.4% annualized pace from 4.4% in Q3. As BEA wrote in the initial release, “Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025. The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were increases in consumer spending and investment. These movements were partly offset by decreases in government spending and exports.”
Some market calendars look for a small upward revision to 1.5%. The bigger crypto-sensitive number may still be the delayed January PCE report, also due Friday. December headline PCE rose 0.4% month on month and 2.9% year on year, while core PCE rose 0.4% on the month and 3.0% on the year. Current previews for January point to headline PCE holding near 2.9% year on year, with core ticking up to around 3.1%.
Bitcoin was trading around $67,409 on Monday, after dipping as low as $65,618 on Sunday. That leaves it squarely in macro territory. Currently, Bitcoin’s fortunes remain tied to broader risk appetite and the tech complex, while the Iran-driven oil surge has pushed yields and the dollar higher and dimmed hopes for near-term rate cuts.
The immediate read-through is straightforward: if CPI and PCE come in firm while oil stays elevated, liquidity expectations likely deteriorate further and crypto remains under pressure. If the inflation data stay contained despite the war shock, bitcoin and the broader market may get room to reprice away from pure stagflation fear.
At press time, the total crypto market cap was at $2.3 trillion.
