Arthur Hayes is making a high-conviction bet on Hyperliquid, arguing in a new essay that HYPE could climb to $150 by August 2026 even if the broader crypto backdrop stays weak. His case rests on a familiar exchange-token playbook, but updated for a market where decentralized perps, not centralized venues, are increasingly capturing the most valuable trading flow.
Why Hayes Thinks Hyperliquid Can Reach $150
Hayes frames Hyperliquid as the standout asset in a sluggish or sideways market because exchanges can keep generating fees regardless of whether prices are rising. In his telling, that matters even more for Hyperliquid because 97% of protocol revenue is used to buy back HYPE from the market. “Hyperliquid, the dominant perp DEX, is the largest revenue-generating project that isn’t a stablecoin,” he wrote. “No other project in all of crypto hands as much money back to token holders as Hyperliquid.”
His target implies roughly a 5x move from about $30 at the time of writing. To get there, Hayes says Hyperliquid would need to lift 30-day annualized revenue to $1.4 billion, a level he says the platform previously reached in August last year. His model also assumes the market will rerate the token from around 12 times earnings to roughly 25.2 times, still below or near the range he cites for major traditional exchange names.
A large part of the thesis is that Hyperliquid does not need an overall expansion in crypto derivatives activity to grow. It only needs to keep taking share from centralized exchanges. Hayes argues that a 3.97 percentage-point increase in market share would be enough for Hyperliquid to return to that $1.4 billion annualized revenue run rate.
The engine for that next leg, in his view, is HIP-3, Hyperliquid’s permissionless perpetuals listing framework. Users who stake 500,000 HYPE can launch markets using the platform’s matching and margin engine, and Hayes points to early traction in silver, gold, the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500. “In only four months, HIP-3 volumes account for close to 10% of total Hyperliquid revenues,” he wrote. “Permissionless listings were always the holy grail of DEXs, and the rapid growth in trading volumes proves this is how Hyperliquid will differentiate itself from the pack.”
That is why his model assumes HIP-3 revenue rises 160% over six months. He also flags HIP-4, which he says should enable permissionless prediction markets, as a possible upside kicker not included in the base case.
Competition is the main objection Hayes tries to neutralize. He argues that headline volumes across perp DEXs can be distorted by wash trading, points farming and other incentives, making raw volume a poor measure of real usage.
His preferred metric is ADV-to-OI, or average daily volume relative to open interest, because open interest requires real capital to be posted. On that basis, he says Hyperliquid has the most “real” volume among the top five perp DEXs. He also says order-book snapshots for Bitcoin perps showed Hyperliquid was usually the cheapest place to execute size once slippage was included.
Hayes also spend time on token supply overhang, another issue that had made him tactically bearish late last year. He notes that the team distributed close to 20% of awarded tokens in November and December, but only about 1% in January and February. “With that out of the way, the team drastically reduced distributions in order to help HYPE rebound,” he wrote, while acknowledging that this part is speculative.
Even his stress case stays constructive. Hayes says that if the market only pays a 12x earnings multiple and the team receives 9.91 million HYPE per month, but revenue still recovers to $1.4 billion annualized, the token would still be worth about $58, or roughly 75% above current levels.
At press time, HYPE traded at $33.237.
