Concerns over quantum computing are weighing on Bitcoin’s price and slowing some investment flows, amid a sharp divide between developers and many investors.
Developers Call Threat Distant
According to Bitcoin developer Adam Back of Blockstream, quantum machines remain far from able to break Bitcoin’s protections. He said the tech is still “ridiculously early” and that research hurdles persist.
Back expects no real threat within the next decade and argued that even if parts of Bitcoin’s cryptography were compromised, the network would not automatically be emptied.
Security, he noted, does not rest solely on encryption in a way that would allow mass theft on the blockchain.
i think the risks are short term NIL. this whole thing is decades away, it’s ridiculously early and they have massive R&D issues in every vector of the required applied physics research to even find out if it’s possible at useful scale. but it’s ok to be “quantum ready” and
— Adam Back (@adam3us) December 18, 2025
The Risk That Keeps Some Awake
Other voices in the community disagree. Jameson Lopp, a well-known Bitcoin engineer, has warned about the worst-case outcome if quantum advances allowed attackers to break the ECDSA signature scheme that secures many wallets.
In that scenario, forged signatures could be used to move funds, and user confidence might erode quickly. That warning has been repeated as a technical possibility, not as something imminent.
How should we treat quantum vulnerable coins in a future where quantum computing becomes a threat? This panel from the Presidio Quantum Bitcoin Summit features myself, @theblackmarble, and @cryptoquick.https://t.co/jhr6hjLXru
— Jameson Lopp (@lopp) September 14, 2025
Investors Worry, Capital Shifts
Nic Carter, a partner at Castle Island Ventures, told observers that it is “extremely bearish” when influential developers appear to dismiss any quantum risk outright.
He said the gap between investor concern and developer assessment is large. Reports have disclosed that some capital is being held back while large holders consider spreading risk into other assets.
Craig Warmke of the Bitcoin Policy Institute added that perceived quantum risk has already pushed some holders to reduce their Bitcoin positions.
Quantum risk is stemming the flow of capital into bitcoin, and encouraging large holders to diversify out of bitcoin.
When non-technical people express concerns, they sometimes use technically incorrect language. It’s frustrating to see technical people dismiss concerns with an… https://t.co/MtSNY7Ivg3
— Craig Warmke (@craigwarmke) December 18, 2025
Current Technology Falls Short
Most cryptographers agree quantum computers today are not powerful enough to crack Bitcoin’s cryptography. That assessment is widely reported by analysts who follow both fields.
Metaculus’s median date for when quantum computers will break modern cryptography is 2040:https://t.co/Li8ni8A9Ox
Seemingly about a 20% chance it will be before end of 2030.
— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) August 27, 2025
Still, the timeline is debated. Based on reports from researchers and public comments from industry figures like Vitalik Buterin, there is a measurable chance — about ~20% — that a machine capable of breaking today’s crypto could exist by 2030. That estimate has prompted calls for proactive steps.
Calls For Preparedness Grow
Financial institutions and national programs, the reports say, are investing heavily in quantum work, and tools like AI are accelerating research in the field. As a result, many in the crypto world argue contingency plans should be ready well before any practical threat appears.
Suggestions include moving to quantum-resistant signature schemes and improving wallet practices so funds are not left exposed while upgrades take place. Some experts point out that banks and other big targets may face attacks earlier, which could give the crypto sector time to respond.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView
