The Dogecoin market structure has tightened around a single, highly watched support zone near $0.138, and analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) is framing that area as the pivot that decides whether the meme coin’s broader bull case survives its current drawdown.
Is Dogecoin About To Break?
Sharing a weekly DOGE/USD chart on X, Kevin described the level as a rare multi-factor confluence: “$0.138 cents on Dogecoin is a combination of the macro .382 Fib, the 200W SMA, and this upsloping trendline.” In his read, the cluster of a macro Fibonacci retracement, the 200-week simple moving average, and an ascending trendline rooted in the bear-market base and late-summer 2024 lows creates a support shelf that is not merely local, but structural to the cycle.
The chart he posted, timestamped Nov. 23, shows DOGE trading around the mid-$0.14s after a steep weekly selloff, with price pressing directly into that circled confluence region. Notably, Kevin’s warning is less about intraday volatility and more about higher-timeframe acceptance below support.
In an earlier post he summarized the risk in blunt terms: “$0.138 is massive support on Dogecoin… you really do not want to see that lost on 3D-1W closes.” The emphasis on three-day to one-week settlements reflects his view that DOGE’s trendline and long-cycle averages matter only if the market begins to close decisively beneath them.
On the chart, that $0.138 area sits just under current price and aligns with the purple 200-week SMA and the rising yellow trendline. Above, Kevin has also mapped a band of overhead supply around the high-$0.18s to ~$0.20, while a deeper horizontal support line near the mid-$0.09s marks the next major downside waypoint visible on his weekly framework.
His point is that the bull trend is still technically intact as long as DOGE holds the rising base, but that the slope can flip fast if the market begins treating $0.138 as resistance instead of support.
The Macro Backdrop Needs To Align
Kevin explicitly situates DOGE’s fate inside a wider liquidity and Bitcoin-led regime, rather than as an isolated meme-coin story. In the Nov. 22 post he wrote, “Obviously BTC’s performance will be the determiner to that outcome so focus there first along with USDT D.
His longer macro note expands that context by contrasting the present Bitcoin technical posture with the policy and sentiment backdrops of previous breakdowns. Kevin recalled that “In 2022 when BTC lost the 50W SMA and the 2D 200 ema/sma we also were confronted with 4+% inflation that was headed to 9% on a freight train, we had the most hawkish Fed in 40 years… along with quantitative tightening at a rate never seen before.”
He further described the psychological environment then as “max euphoria where if you even hinted that a top was in you would be ridiculed by the herd.” Against that, he argued that the current cycle is almost the mirror image in macro terms even if some of the BTC chart signals rhyme: “In 2025 you have the same technical setup on BTC via a loss of those key MA’s but in terms of monetary policy, sentiment and the overall macroeconomic environment it is completely the opposite.”
He listed the pivots he sees: “The Fed is ending QT… rates are getting closer to neutral and will continue to come down,” while “PMI’s have been contractionary for years but are likely to start expanding in 2026,” and “key inflation metrics are seeing lower highs.” He also emphasized that this macro shift is occurring alongside a sentiment extreme rather than a mania peak, saying, “we formed a high in pure utter pessimism.”
That blend of technical fragility and macro easing is why Kevin thinks this phase is unusually hard to trade and why singular confluence levels gain importance. As he put it, “This feels very similar to 2019 in terms of the macro environment while the technical setup looks more 2022.”
He called the moment “the most debatable/confusing time in history for the #Crypto markets,” adding that while Bitcoin has been “very predictable this year,” he doubts that persists: “I have a funny feeling everyone is in for a major curveball over the next 1.5 years… The 2011-2021 era is over. Global economics and trends have been derailed post covid.”
Within that framing, Dogecoin’s $0.138 shelf becomes the kind of level where the market decides which side of the 2019-style macro versus 2022-style technical tension is dominant. Kevin’s immediate message to traders, however, is simpler than the macro philosophy behind it: the bull run “rests on” this zone because it is the first place where DOGE’s long-cycle trendline, its 200-week mean, and its macro Fibonacci structure all agree.
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.146.
