BItcoin exchange inflows echo 2018 crypto capitulation, but the reasons for the largescale moves from Binance remain unclear.
Bitcoin (BTC) inflows to largest exchange Binance just saw a giant spike reminiscent of the 2018 bear market capitulation.
Data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows that on Nov. 18, a giant tranche of almost 60,000 BTC entered Binance’s wallet.
Exchange inflows highest since late 2018
BTC price contagion fears thanks to FTX insolvencies and related panic selling are ongoing.
Now, the latest on-chain figures from Binance could provide an additional catalyst for nervous markets — the exchange has seen its biggest daily inflow on record.
With Nov. 18 not over, partial data from CryptoQuant puts current inflows at over 138,000 BTC for the day so far.
To put the deposit in perspective, even taking into account outflows — not just at Binance, but other major exchanges — the inflows are still the largest since Nov. 30, 2018. Two weeks later, BTC/USD bottomed at $3,100 after falling 40%.
For Binance itself, meanwhile, the move means that its BTC reserves are now higher than before the FTX debacle began — 573,000 compared to 513,000 on Nov. 6.
The event has not gone unnoticed, and one commentator was quick to note that just over 59,000 had come from a “de-peg” of Binance’s Bitcoin BEP2 (BTCB) token.
BTCB is a Bitcoin-backed token on Binance Chain with a publicly known reserve address. That wallet contained 68,200 BTC at the time of writing, having seen outflows of 127,351 BTC on the day.
Unlike regular operations, however, the decrease in the BTCB market cap at the same time as the reserve decreased suggests that genuine selling is afoot, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju.
Ki explained the theory behind what he called “sellside pressure” in a Twitter thread:
“Rationale: – If you’re CZ, why do you unpeg Bitcoins from BNB chain? Your goal is to support projects on BNB chain. – No announcements from Binance means it’s customer or investor’s money. So I think this activity was highly likely from customer(s) who are in urgent situation.”
Exchanges’ week of heat
Opinions were nonetheless far from aligned on the issue, with others arguing that the giant inflows were simply internal reorganization, which would have no further repercussions.
Related: Bitcoin price target now $13.5K as BTC trader says ‘exit all the markets’
“Binance saw a large inflow of up to 127,351 bitcoins and a large outflow of nearly 50,000 bitcoins today. On-chain verification shows that these inflows and outflows are organized by internal wallets, which are transfers between cold wallets and wallets for proof of reserves,” cryptocurrency journalist Colin Wu stated in a widely-reproduced tweet.
“I don’t really understand the Jump rumors,” Andrew T, a technician at analytics platform Nansen, tweeted about the general inflow tally to Binance:
“There have been some massive outflows past seven days, but also inflows elsewhere. ‘they’re transferring to Binance to dump’ doesn’t seem right.”
As Cointelegraph reported, exchange users withdrew over $3 billion in the days following FTX going under, a trend which continues.
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